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How To Take Advantage Of A Winning Streak - By: Andy Follin - Poker-A-Z.Com
it's like a Holy Grail for gamblers, a once-in-a-blue-moon happening, spoken of in hushed, reverential terms for years after. it's also enough to send the supporters of small non-league soccer clubs into ecstasy for a month or two. What is it? The elusive winning streak. it's something we've all heard of, especially if you like a flutter. Any number of punters will tell you that they're on a streak or have just had a streak or are expecting a winning streak soon. So what exactly is a winning streak? In the broadest terms, it's a series of one or more unlikely results. And it's the ?unlikely? part of that which makes it significant. If you support a Championship winning team, a run of six or seven consecutive wins doesn't really come as a surprise. Although it could be referred to as a winning streak, it's not really what we're discussing here. What we're discussing here is a series of results that go against the odds ? a series which, were you wise enough to recognise it and put money on it, could make you very wealthy. To understand this, imagine the toss of a coin. Each toss has two possible results ? Heads or Tails. The chance of each happening is the same: ? (or 0.5). The chance of 10 consecutive heads is then ? x ? x ? x ? x ? x ? x ? x ? x ? x ? or 0.0009765. In other words, you'd have to repeat 10 coin tosses a thousand times before that sequence was likely to occur ? on average. I say ?on average? because that's where the advantage lies. All games pay out based on probability. If coin tossing was a casino game (bizarrely, it apparently is in Australia ? but that's another story!) the payout on 10 consecutive heads would be something in the order of 750 to 1. The ?edge? for the player comes in recognising when events are happening outside the normal bounds of probability and betting accordingly ? that is where the real money is to be made. Of course, a winning streak doesn't have to be as long or unlikely as 10 consecutive heads. Two consecutive blackjacks or 5 consecutive reds on the roulette wheel both constitute winning streaks and offer opportunities for profit. The basic question when you recognise a winning streak is: ?Do I bet against it or with it?? Thinking about this more carefully, you'll realise that if you bet with and it stops, you lose once; if you bet against and it continues, you lose more than once. So, in general, bet with the winning streak. The second question would - or should - be: ?How do I take advantage of this?? Many systems and strategies have been devised to take advantage of consecutive runs of Evens Chance (ie ?) bets.
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